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By Peter B. Meyer –  June 17, June 2012

It is hardly possible to keep up with the accelerating events. Amazing how quick a government can waste €100 billion. Just days after the European Union agreed to float Spain's financial sector, the yield on Spanish 10-year debt breached the all-important 7% mark – its highest yield since the euro was created in 1999. Yields jumped after Moody's cut Spain's credit rating. For the record: Portugal, Ireland, and Greece were all bailed out after their government debt yields climbed above 7%. In Spain's case, this is the point at which the country will need another bailout soon.

The Spanish government may announce additional fiscal cuts and structural reforms. Bolstered by funds from the ESM, Spain remains financially afloat for several months. But the Spanish economy continues to deteriorate and unemployment heads towards 30%.  

The financial world is watching with disbelief and shock as the European banking and political elites do the daily shuffle in a veiled attempt to hold together a forced, non-elected European Union. While it continues to come further apart at the seams due to excessive sovereign debt and failing austerity measures, rendered meaningless by an explosion in fiat currency creation, not seen since the days of the German Weimer Republic.

"The EuroTitanic has now hit the iceberg and sadly there simply aren't enough lifeboats." Says Nigel Farage, from UK Independence Party.

The next scenario: Violent protests against Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s austerity measures, will lead him to call for a referendum. His government fails to get the necessary support from voters and resigns, throwing the country into full-blown political chaos. Likely another Guerra Civil, as the one of the thirties may occur.

Merkel cuts off further support for Spain, saying that hard-working German taxpayers have already done enough. In a hastily arranged mini-summit, Germany, Finland, Austria, and The Netherlands announce that they will not renounce the euro as their joint currency. This only increases financial pressure on France, Italy, and the other members. As the reality of the partial dissolution of the EU sinks in, the financial meltdown spreads from Europe to the United States and Asia. 

Investors should study history and get ready for a fast replay of a new version of European history during1919, 1931 and 1933 that could transpire quickly over the next year.

Whether the effects of a worldwide depression will again be countered by another world war (WW3) is the only open question facing the world today. The failed European Union is going down. Of course the power elites will attempt to use the real or manufactured crisis as a pretext to expand the EU, but don’t believe they will succeed. The speed of events and flow of alternative news renders their old style propaganda powerless to keep up with and control public opinion today.

“We are indeed seeing a latter-day replay of the infamous Treaty of Versailles debt load forced on a defeated German nation in 1919 now levied on the entire European Union and this time Germany will be the winner. Maybe the turnabout is fair play but the long-term consequences could be as tragic as what the victorious allies did to a prostrate German nation that led to the rise of National Socialism and Adolf Hitler back in the 1930’s.”

“As was the case in 1919, 93 years ago, the banks and the power elite are seeking profits, gold and wealth at the expense of bankrupt and defeated nations but this time Germany is getting it’s revenge. In 1919, the victorious and "righteous" allied politicians that had earlier forced the United States to enter the war in 1917 in order to forestall a German victory so the American banks and arms industry could get their loans repaid and avoid bankruptcy, are this time on the receiving end. Germany might bailout the EU nations, at the last minute, but at the price of their gold reserves, control over economic policies and veto threat even over elections in the individual nations.”

“In May of 1931, the historic Credit-Anstalt Bank in Vienna, - now called UniCredit and based in Italy- founded by the Rothschild family in 1855, collapsed, - as will UniCredit do-. This in turn caused banks and companies across Europe to go under in a domino inspired panic. This collapse destabilized Europe far more than the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and over time destroyed European confidence and belief in political and financial institutions. The result was the rise in nationalism, fascism and ultimately World War II.”

“Americans don’t really know European history but the people of Europe do and this is why the elites are so determined to avoid another banking panic and collapse at any price. The problem for them is the expensive bank bailouts may well bring an even more destructive threat to Europe hyperinflation. Again, we know what happened in Germany.”

“The EU and the banking elites may well succeed in their efforts but the losers will ultimately be the sovereignty of individual nations and the wealth, freedom and prosperity of Europe. This problem will likely jump the Atlantic and an inefficient fascism like what took place in Italy combined with a nationalistic foreign policy like the German Reich does not bode well for the United States.”

Count on; European bank and stock exchange closures, private gold confiscation, limitations on ATM and bank account withdrawals and international wire transfers, that also will happen in the United States. The people of Europe and America will lose their wealth-security and preservation of purchasing power. Only precious metals and none exchange traded private equity opportunities will provide unique market opportunities.

Suggestion: Take action today and buy gold and silver, because this wil not end well for Europe or the United States.

Note: Many years later, Merkel, who has withdrawn from politics and become a recluse, is asked whether she thinks that she should have done anything differently during the EU crisis. Unfortunately, her answer comes too late to change the course of history.


 
 
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By Peter B. Meyer – 6 of May 2012
This is a very fundamental topic concerning the misperception of gold pricing, which is determined by supply and demand and is not influenced by the supply of mined gold, or traded volume. For this reason I integrally quote below this obvious explanation.

The incorrect statement: “There isn’t a physical market on Earth that can withstand that type of demand increase without higher prices over the long run, and the gold market is no different. There are no sellers of physical gold that we know of who can satiate that scale of new demand, and global gold mine supply has been virtually flat for over the last 10 years.” Stated the largest commodity trader Eric Sprott recently.

But Robert Blumen says: Sprott is wrong. Mine supplies are no bearing on the gold price.

The view outlined by Sprott, completely misunderstands gold demand and gold pricing.

“The statement ‘there are not sellers of physical gold... who can satiate that scale of new demand’ is obviously wrong, as every ounce demanded by a buyer was supplied by a seller. Also, the comparison of these ‘demand’ numbers to gold mine output is a category error.

“Gold is an asset. Supply and demand should be understood in the same way that we understand the shares of a company. Every time shares change hands, the shares are demanded by a buyer and supplied by a seller. For each and every transaction, supply equals demand. Adding up all of the transactions that occur on a particular exchange, over the course of a month or a year, tells you absolutely nothing.

“If you said that buyers in China had bought 100 million shares of Microsoft but ‘no supplier could supply that many shares,’ nor was the company issuing enough new shares to meet the demand, you would readily see the error in that statement.

“Everyone understands that new shares only dilute the value of the existing shareholders, that it is not required for a company to issue new shares for the price to go up or down and that most trading of shares consists of existing shareholders selling to people who have dollars.

“The comparison to gold mined, scrap, central bank sales, etc., is particularly irrelevant. Mine supply adds a small increment each year to the total supply, but most of the gold (or any other asset) traded in the world is not the incremental new supply; it is shifting among the holders of the existing base of supply.

“I did some research on this and found that mine supply is absorbed in about three days of trading on the London bullion market. The other 200-plus days consist of the existing stockpiles being traded. Think about a stock — the price can go up or down in any given year, whether the company issues new shares, or even buys them back.

“Gold bugs love to do this comparison because if you can find the some buyers in the market bought X tons of gold and that happens to be more than Y percent of total mine supply, it looks as if there is a supply squeeze about to happen and the price has to go up. But it doesn’t. The quantity bought or sold on any particular day or week or year tells you nothing about where the price will go. The quantity bought or sold is the trading volume. Volume does not drive price. The price can increase or decrease on rising or falling volume.

“This error is really widespread. I’ve been on a bit of a mission to clear it up.”

Robert is absolutely right. Robert has written about this in more detail in a couple of other places, some of which you can find at the Mises Institute.

“Conclusion: The gold market is a very liquid and deep market with plenty of supply available at or near the market prices. Many buyers and sellers are close to the margin. For those who accept my analysis of price formation but believe that the impact of the gold miner as the marginal seller is nonetheless quite significant, these statistics suggest otherwise.” The bottom line is mine supply is irrelevant to the gold price. Ignore it.

Nevertheless stay bullish on the gold price for other reasons. To protect your wealth and purchasing power in today’s economic environment of unlimited and non restricted money printing by the Central Banks the world over. And also, it’s important to note that quality gold stocks can succeed and make a lot of money at the current (gold) price level.


Tags: Gold pricing, Gold, stocks, money, gold market