If Mitt Romney takes Pennsylvania many pundits are predicting that he will be home and dry, well almost. Rick Santorum should be the favourrite to win in this his home State but right now it looks as if Pennsylvania may be Mr Romney's for the taking.
Today Rick Santorum has been getting on with business as usual in this long GOP nomination race. Displaying an etch a sketch toy he continued to claim that Mitt Romney has no clear policies. Rather he maintains that once the nomination is won Romney will simply re-write his manifesto. It may of course be that he will have to do this. What is needed to persuade the GOP faithful to vote for him is not likely to be the same as what is needed to persuade floating voters or disenfranchised Democrats to take a chance on him.
Once one of the four candidates is selected the business of fighting an election proper can begin. In the meantime it is a destructive period of name calling ones allies. The in house fighting will do nothing in the long wrong to help the GOP. As yet though it seems that all four candidates want to fight to the nomination death or financial ruin. It will probably be which ever comes first.
Today, April 8, 2012, Newt Gingrich has conceded that Mitt Romney is the nominee most likely to succeed. This assessment will not have been easy for Gingrich to admit, He has however vowed to fight on. As the votes stack up for Romney surely soon at least one of the other candidates will surrender. The news that Gingrich is now $4.5 million in debt is not good. It hardly sets a good example to the people that politicians continue to ask to tighten their belts, to see such large sums of money in effect squandered.
Newt also admitted today that his quest to be elected as the GOP challenger against President Obama has been much harder than he envisaged. At least it seems he was being honest today.
Perhaps the writing is on the wall now for the Gingrich campaign. He accepted that his fundraising was no match for Romney's. He said, "I hit him as hard as I could. He hit me as hard as he could. It turned out he had more things to hit with than I did. And, that’s part of the business. He’s done the fundraising side brilliantly,'
Mr Gingrich went on to say that should Romney win the nomination he would have no qualms campaigning for him. Is this a sign of things to come very soon? Better watch this space.
Tags: US 2012 election, GOP nomination, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, President Obama, Rick Santorum
Surveys help predict the way the vote may go
It's that time again. Another GOP vote is on the cards in the USA and it is generally felt that this one will go Rick Santorum's way. To date Mr Santorum has looked the only one of the GOP final four who could give Mitt Romney a run for his money, and that's a lot of money! The latest pre-vote polls in Louisiana indicate that Rick Santorum will win big style here.
It would appear that he is leading by double digits over Mitt Romney, at least in Lousiana. This must mean that Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are falling yet even further behind. Surely the time is near when one of those two will decide to call it a day as far as their campaign goes? In most people's minds that time is long overdue. If either or both do who they endorse could prove interesting.
What in some parts of the US will damage Rick Santorum's GOP nomination campaign may actually prove to be positives in Louisiana. His anti gay, strong religious beliefs, pro-life often sexist views could be appealing to the GOP voters in Louisiana.
The latest poll predictions have come by way of information gathered by surveys and presumably robocalls. Just how accurate such surveys are is debatable. Whilst some who take part will alwayss treat the poll as a serious matter others may not.
Sadly for Santorum even a good win in Louisiana will not inflate his number of delegates dramatically. According to The Huffington Post, "Louisiana will send 46 delegates to the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., but will choose only 20 on the basis of Saturday's vote. Louisiana's rules allocate those 20 delegates proportionally to any candidate that receives more than 25 percent of the vote (the remaining 26 delegates will be selected by a subsequent state convention and will remain technically unpledged)."
There could yet be hope though for Mitt Romney is Louisiana. This State may be in the South, which tends to favour Rick Santorum, but it is not a traditionally hard line evangelical rural State. Either way though it is doubtful that Dr Paul or Newt Gingrich will do well.
It is a shame, as far as Ron Paul is concerned, that tonight's voting result from Maine is not a binding result. The GOP in Maine will go to the polls proper in May. Between now and then a lot could happen.
Tonight's result had Mitt Romney in the lead but only just. The full result was Mitt Romney 39%, Ron Paul, 36%, Rick Santorum 18% and Newt Gingrich bringing up the rear with the left overs.
Romney also was flavour of the week at the Conserative Washington annual event
CPAC. It is worth noting that Santorum and Gingrich did not actively compete in Maine. This means that their results were perhaps to be expected. For Mitt Romney it may only be a slender victory but Ron Paul has been a Maine favourite in the past.
The Nominees now have a little over two weeks in order to gather their thoughts and decide on the next steps their campaigns will take. February 28 Arizona and Michigan will hold their primaries. That gives all the nominees plenty of time to debate and persuade.
So its congratulations to Rick Santorum winner of three States yesterday putting him back into the GOP nomination race. Many had felt that he was politically dead in the water after Mitt Romney's last few wins but it is never over as they say until the fat lady sings. She is still warming up in the wings.Does Santorum's win hail a change of GOP direction
or just another step on the long nominee road?Rick Santorum is the extreme voice of the GOP. He does not pull his punches on abortion and gay rights. He appeals to the American Republican Christian voter.
The conservative Conservative.That said his appeal will not be universal, even in the States. Would he make a good President? Apart from his stance on abortion and gay rights his policies seem rather slim. Perhaps it is just that these get less publicity.In the last few days he has launched attacks on the forerunner Mitt Romney. This has done its trick. It has launched Santorum back into the spotlight.
There has been no such saving grace for Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. Paul especially continues to trail in the vote. There is still a long way to go though.CNN carried breakdown of last night's, February 7, 2012, vote:"Colorado was the most competitive state of the day, with Santorum winning 40% of the vote to 35% for Romney, 13% for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 12% for Texas Rep. Ron Paul. After a night of returns trickling in and the lead shifting between Santorum and Romney, Colorado Republican Party chairman Ryan Call announced live on CNN that Santorum was the winner. In Minnesota, Santorum got 45% of the vote to 27% for Paul, 17% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich, with 88% of the total counted, according to the secretary of state.With 100% of the Missouri vote counted, Santorum had 55% to 25% for Romney and 12% for Paul, according to unofficial results. Gingrich didn't make the ballot in Missouri."It is worth noting that voter turn out was low and that last night's votes were by no means a dead cert for Santorum. Mitt Romney is generally felt to be a moderate Conservative whilst Santorum
could never be accused of that. In his victory speech Mr Santorum said, ""I don't stand here and claim to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama."February 11 will be the next result in this long draw out very American vote. Then the American public have some respite before Arizona on February 28
. Before then though will be another, yawn, televised debate on February 22 and of course more action on the campaign trail.Soon it will be time to start totting up the number of delegates each nominee has won in order to spot a clear leader. For now it is still anyone's race, except perhaps Ron Paul's.
But hold that thought. Didn't Paul come second in Minnesota? Yes it is any nominees race.
The latest results show Mitt Romney with 41% of the vote, Newt Gingrich with 25%, Ron Paul with 22% and Rick Santorum trailing with 13%.Just 5 of the 17 counties have yet to be declared but barring a miragle the first and fourth place look assured.
For the Romney camp this is the third win, the last two consecutive wins. There may still be a long way to go but it looks increasingly likely that Mr Romney will be the GOP choice for 2012.
At time of writing Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul may be vying for second place in Nevada but Mitt Romney has proved to be a clear winner. One other dead cert seems to be that Rick Santorum, is lagging behind in last place. Will Nevada be his last contest for 2012?
Tonight, February 4, 2012, Nevada will decide who is their preferred GOP
candidate. If they opt for Mitt Romney he will become the first nominee this year to win two states straight in a row. Earlier this week he won a resounding victory in Florida and he will be hoping to build on this win.If the televised debates, campaign managers and "smoke and mirrors" have all worked
Romney appears to be a sure fire bet. However Newt, "the comeback kid"
, has risen from the dead, politically speaking, more than once before.The problem for Newt Gingrich seems to be that he has been less visible in the days following Florida. He may vow that he is in the race for the long haul but in many ways he appears to have gone to ground. Almost to have waved the white flag of surrender. Could it be the cost of his campaign? Romney with his vast wealth is in the best position to win but of course that does not mean that he necessarily is the best candidate.The media by and large seems to have written off Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, but although they have trailed at the back of the pack so far, they should not be ruled out. You would think that Mitt Romney would be grateful to those in his camp who helped his popularity turnaround but it seems he does not. One casualty so far is Brett O'Donnell
. If media reports are accurate the Romney camp are waving goodbye to him as they fear he has received too much credit for the resurgence of Romney in Florida.Nevada has a more rural base which could suit Ron Paul. He had had some success here in the past. However his camp are not being overly optimistic. Even allowing for the rural vote they are only predicting second place. That however would be a marked improvement for Ron Paul.Th GOP camp itself has its own divisions. Not all Republicans are hardliners supporting the more extreme views of this Conservative party. This could cause the GOP untold damage. Already the apparent in house fighting of the GOP televised debates has taken its toll. Just how these candidates will work together after so much mud slinging is hard to know.According to the latest GOP timetable the four candidates are in for a busy few days
. This may therefore prove a difficult time for all, but especially for Gingrich.
The GOP nominee televised debates currently airing as an ongoing series in the US are proving to be entertaining. They have been likened to everything from Presidential debates to Circus clowns trying to raise a laugh. Although some of the viewing audience appear to be tiring of the nominees on the treadmill of debate the majority of viewers are enjoying the entertainment. How much impact these debates will have on the choice of candidate in itself is probably also debatable, The way the campaigns seem to be going though it appears that there are still "floating" voters in the US who are there for the candidates to grab.
GOP nominees have been out and about tying to ensure that they receive the maximum votes in the Nevada Caucuses. Front runners Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have been piling on the pressure as they both fight for supremacy. Voters have had some respite from the televised debates as there is a slight break in the previously intense scheduling. Nevada is voting February 4, 2012, though, and so time is short
Donald Trump has now endorsed Newt Gingrich whilst former senatorial candidate Sharron Angle has endorsed Rick Santorum. Mr Santorum has been unwell and not quite so "out there" as Romney and Gingrich.
As the nominees are scrutinised further will Romney's success continue or is he due for a slide in popularity?
With reports that the Florida GOP campaign has been the most negative ever you have to wonder where the remaining four candidates go from here. Yes, in simple terms they move on to Nevada but what of their campaigns? Will any of the nominees though decide that Florida was the last step on the GOP trail for them?
Well if he is speaking the truth it won't be Newt Gingrich.
Having received a soar in popularity only a short time ago, he is widely expected to lose out to Mitt Romney in Florida. If the winner was the one spending the most of their ad campaign Romney would win by a mile. According to Politico, "
In South Carolina, Romney’s campaign, the super PAC Restore Our Future and another pro-Romney group, Citizens for a Working America, spent a combined $4.6 million on television and radio ads. Gingrich and his super PAC, Winning Our Future, spent $2.2 million. In Florida, the numbers remain almost the same with Pro-Romney forces having spent $15.4 million versus $3.4 million for Gingrich."
Strikes me as a hell of a lot of money wasted. All politicians may do this but in many ways it is obscene. As they play God with our lives and with our finances they show a careless disregard for money and its value. Remember also that for some of them it will in reality be money down the drain if in the end they do not win through. The money shown above is for only a small part of their GOP 2012 campaign. Add to this the cost of the Democratic campaign and you are looking at shameful waste of money and resources.
Whether Gingrich can compete with Romney's wealth or not he is adamant that his campaign will continue far beyond the Florida Primary. To quote Newt speaking yesterday, January 30, 2012, “Remember, when Callista and I first announced, it was explained to us in June and July by the establishment that we were dead”
All things being equal then he has come a long way. For Gingrich though the GOP race could be an ongoing rollercoaster which he may be determined to ride but unable to weather.
January 31, Florida Primary, USA
Who will rise triumphant?
Will people continue to fall for the latest far fetched election promise?
Will one or maybe more fall by the wayside?
As the GOP race appears to be as much about religious belief as politics perhaps it is fitting to write in such a way. What happened then to the "meek will inherit the earth?" Fat chance of that with the remaining four candidates. If it was a contest on being meek perhaps the leading two would be Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, rather than Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
As it is these two men. Romney and Gingrich, appear to have Florida sewn up. At least one of them does. If pundits have it right it will be Mitt Romney who the people of Florida choose. No race is over though until, as they say, "the fat lady sings". Seems to me that she is still warming up before the main event.
When votes are expected to be foregone conclusions there are often some surprises along the way. After all once you feel that you are home and dry you relax the reins and next thing you know you have been pipped at the post. This could be the time that a flagging Santorum or Paul take over the lead.
As yet it does seem that none of the candidates are taking anything for granted. They have been campaigning and debating hard making any promises necessary.According to CNN
Mitt Romney has continued to use his vast wealth to blast Newt Gingrich whenever possible. There has been no let up in his ad campaign. Romney has used the same tactics he did in Iowa to set back Newt's popularity. After Newt's surge in popularity last week he is falling back in the polls, or so it seems. Job done.
Maybe but surely this is just what could be a cause for concern to Americans, or right now the people of Florida. Romeny's apparently endless wealth which can be used for his own ends. Today Gingrich has admitted that the ads have achieved their purpose. He said however, "We are going to tell the truth. We're going to beat a big lie campaign with a truth campaign. We're going to beat money power with people power. And we are going to go all the way to the convention, and we are going to win in Tampa, and we are going to the nominee, with your help, of the Republican Party."
Whether this is confidence or bluff is immaterial. It is the stuff that dreams are made off. Believing that you can win is often half way to winning.
Tuesday January 31, 2012, the people of Florida will decide who their choice of Republican leader will be. Whilst recently it has been a one or perhaps two horse race developing remember that there are four politicians vying for votes.
Today the election hopefuls are still doing their damndest to win votes and Newt Gingrich was full of what he would call in others baloney. Professing to be an all American guy who like the American people is grandiose he played to the audience. He went as far as to say "grandiose is my middle name" Of course they loved it. Even his ridiculous claims that by the end of his second term America would have a colony on the Moon. There was a lot wrong with his spiel, not least the fact that he said second term.
With global economies struggling to survive the fact that Newt feels a priority would be a heap of money spent on colonising the Moon is quite frankly nuts. It may be that he knows during his Presidency the World will crumble to the extent that earth will need to be abandoned. If no, reaching for the Moon when Earth is in trouble makes no sense. Then there is the fact that he appears to believe America could and should own the Moon. What planet does Gingrich live on? He was of course saying what the audience wanted to hear but does he believe his own spin?
It is probably safe to assume though that his grandiose moon plans were simply designed for the Florida State. Jobs here plummeted when the Space program was cut. Promising people here a new, rejuevenated Space program with the associated investment and jobs would be what they wanted to hear. Was it a promise cast in stone? Doubtful.